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I love my coffee. And I love my cigar on balmy summer evenings.

A couple of recent events led me to write this post. First,  I received a request on one of my earlier posts on Gold, to give my take on Silver. Why not? After all, Gold and Silver have been the choicest possessions of men and women over centuries. Be it any civilization, any era, the fascination for these pretty, shiny things has captivated and motivated one and all.

Next, some friends and I had a deep discussion on the future of precious metals, given our current economic condition.

But what do coffee and cigars have to do with Gold and Silver, you may wonder. Well, it so happens the recent discussion with friends happened over coffee and cigars. I made a mental note then, to make this a topic for one of my future posts. Coffee & Cigars made our discussion intellectually stimulating; therefore, they get an honorary mention.

Anyway, here’s what I’ve to say about Gold and Silver:

image

image

These two charts (both tracking values & changes from 1975-2008) showcase interesting data-points:

  1. Gold and Silver have always trended similarly, historically, the % change and the direction of the change for both these metals has always followed a similar pattern, indicating a tight correlation between them
  2. The number of barrels of Oil that an ounce of Gold or Silver can buy stays relatively flat (1 ounce of Gold = 17 barrels of oil (avg): I barrel of oil = 3 ounces of Silver (avg.))
  3. The Gold-Silver ratio has a weighted long term average which tries to maintain it flat
  4. Given the trading prices of Gold and Silver (Gold = $956 & Silver = 18.55 /ounce). I believe Gold has to hit $1153 sometime in the near future. Silver will rally as well and IMO it will hit $22 around the same time.
  5. FWIW. in order to hit the historical avg Gold-Oil ratio, Gold has to hit the $2000/ounce mark (corresponding price of Silver in the $32 range). I believe this to be an anomaly, strengthening my belief that Oil prices will come down to more saner levels and Gold, thus Silver, will go up. Both Gold & Silver have shiny futures-no pun intended.

Co-incidentally, my price targets for both Gold & Silver imply a 21% growth in the near future. These shiny, pretty things may not be that evil after all.

Word!

Stockerati. Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008, at 1:04 am. Filed under Analysis, Gold & Precious Metals. .

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